Analyses of universal electrification pathways for commercial and public service in Ethiopia using OSeMOSYS

Abstract: Ethiopia’s power sector has experienced rapid growth, largely driven by hydropower investments and ambitious electrification programs. Despite renewable energy accounting for over 98% of installed capacity, reliable electricity access remains limited, with only 55.6% of the population and 15% of health facilities benefiting from dependable supply. This study employs the OSeMOSYS modeling framework to evaluate least-cost pathways for achieving universal electrification of commercial and public service sectors by 2050. Three scenarios are analyzed: Business as Usual (BAU), High Demand Growth (HGD), and Universal Access (UNAC). Results show that under BAU, hydropower continues to dominate but expansion rates are insufficient to meet future demand, leaving critical services underserved. The HGD scenario highlights a demand peak of 12.61 PJ by 2040, requiring diversification to reduce hydro dependence. The UNAC pathway demonstrates that decentralized renewable solutions, particularly standalone solar systems, are essential for extending affordable and reliable electricity to remote public service facilities. Policy insights emphasize the need to accelerate infrastructure expansion, diversify energy sources, and prioritize decentralized renewables to achieve Ethiopia’s universal electrification targets and ensure resilient service delivery.