Human Capital Migration and Regional Wage Dynamics in Ukraine: Evidence from Pre- and Post-Shock Periods

This study examines how human capital migration is associated with regional wage dynamics in Ukraine, contrasting pre-shock labour markets with post-2022 displacement and international protection arrangements. Using official pre-shock regional wage statistics and administrative migration-flow indicators, we document wage dispersion across oblasts and its association with internal net migration. For the post-shock period, we supplement official statistics with a transparent proxy for labor-market wage offers from job-posting data to illustrate how wage signals concentrate in major urban labour markets under heightened mobility and uncertainty. An exploratory regression links (log) regional wages to net migration flows, and a structured robustness plan is provided for future research using richer microdata (tax, social insurance, matched employer–employee records). Results indicate that higher-wage regions tended to experience less negative net migration before the full-scale invasion, while post-shock job-offer signals show strong concentration in Kyiv and other major hubs. Policy implications stress workforce retention, targeted training and re-skilling, and institutional measures that lower regional adjustment costs.