Climate Atlas Queensland 2025 and 2050 – CAIRNS – Climate Charts

CAIRNS – Climate Charts – 2025 - 2050 

• Psychromtric Chart (graphical tool representing physical and thermal properties for human comfort) + UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) polygon
• Windwheel
• Dry Bulb Temperature (C)
• Relative Humidity (%)
• Total Sky Cover (tenths)

UTCI EPW-based polygons (Fig. 8) indicate that average summer temperatures in 2050 are almost entirely outside the comfort zone, with the percentage of hours experiencing uncomfortable conditions rising from 23% in 2025 to 60% in 2050. Dry bulb temperatures above the 2025 summer mean increase by approximately 20%, while hours exceeding 30 °C increase by about 13% (Fig. 9).

Relative humidity shows a slight reduction in the time outside the 40–60% comfort range (Fig. 10), but wind speeds decrease (Fig. 11), reducing potential cooling effects. Cloud cover in the CSIRO 2050 files reflects historical 1997–2015 conditions, which were lower than current trends suggest (Fig. 12), meaning actual impacts may be slightly less severe.

The analysis emphasizes that without mitigation, thermal stress will increase markedly by mid-century. Consequently, a range of urban design and policy interventions—as explored in the optimisation experiments—should be assessed to enhance future resilience. The results are further examined across three height regimen scenarios (original, average fitness, and rank 0), grouped into geometry, surface, and comfort categories, using the same ground and building material specifications as the Burleigh model (Giurgiu, 2026), which comply with current NCC requirements.

References/ 

Ren, Zhengen; Tang, Tonny; & James, Melissa (2021): Projected weather files for building energy modelling. v2. CSIRO. Service Collection. http://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/430469?index=1

OneBuilding Database (2024): Climate Data for Energy Modelling. Available at: https://climate.onebuilding.org/

Giurgiu, I. C., OTTMANN, D. A., & Musgrave, E. (2026). Climate Atlas Queensland 2025, 2050 and 2070 – CAIRNS – Comfort/Energy Simulations – Cairns, CBD. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18477327