Phaeton Hypothesis: A Testable Framework for Inner Solar System Reorganization

ABSTRACT

This  paper  proposes  a  testable  framework  wherein  a  ~1.5  M  planet  at  2.3  AU,  with  Mars  as a tidally-locked satellite, underwent tidal disruption at Jupiter's Roche limit approximately 400-500 Ma. The  framework  addresses  several  unexplained  features  of  the  inner  solar  system  through  a  unified mechanism, including Mars's equatorial bulge, Valles Marineris orientation, Mercury's composition and orbit, and concentrated mass extinctions on Earth. Preliminary calculations suggest debris velocities (28-50  km/s)  from  Roche  disruption,  combined  with  Mars's  ejection  velocity  (~20  km/s),  would  yield relative  impact  velocities  (10-30  km/s)  consistent  with  observed  crater  morphology.  The  hypothesis makes  specific,  falsifiable  predictions  testable  through  N-body  orbital  simulations  and  Mars  sample return  missions  (2033-2037).  A  transparent  confidence  assessment  is  provided:  ultra-conservative Bayesian  probability  estimates  yield  30-40%  plausibility  pending  computational  verification,  while evaluation of convergent physical evidence suggests 60-70% confidence may be more realistic. The primary  research  question  is  not  whether  this  framework  is  correct,  but  whether  it  is  physically plausible—if even a small fraction of parameter space (1 in 500 simulations) permits stable configurations, the framework merits serious consideration regardless of prior expectations. Keywords: planetary  dynamics,  tidal  disruption,  Roche  limit,  Mars  geology,  impact  cratering,  orbital  mechanics, Greek astronomy