La crisis terminal del Modelo Económico Social Comunitario Productivo en Bolivia (2006–2025)

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Abstract (English)

This article presents a historical-structural analysis of the terminal crisis of Bolivia’s Social Community Productive Economic Model (MESCP), from its implementation in 2006 to its systemic collapse in 2023–2025. Using a historical political economy approach, the research identifies the root causes, transmission mechanisms, and observable effects of the exhaustion of a rentier- extractivist model. The analysis shows that the MESCP, although it generated positive macroeconomic and social indicators during the commodity boom (2006– 2014), systematically prioritized the immediate political redistribution of resource rents over endogenous productive transformation and institutional strengthening. This logic created structural vulnerabilities that became unsustainable after the post 2014 fall in international prices. The response of “postponing adjustment” through reserve depletion, unsustainable debt, and maintenance of fiscal rigidities amplified the final crisis. By 2024–2025, the model manifested a multidimensional collapse: stagflation (0.73% GDP growth with inflation above 5%), a fiscal deficit of 9.2% of GDP, international reserves below two months of imports, a fractured exchange rate with parallel market gaps exceeding 30%, and widespread shortages. The study concludes that overcoming this terminal crisis requires an inevitable paradigm shift toward a diversified, productive, and institutionally robust economy—a transition fraught with significant political and social challenges