CHOICE D5.1 Release of the scenario narratives and their quantitative drivers

Executive Summary

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of various scenarios and their application within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to address climate change mitigation and related challenges in the scope of CHOICE. The CHOICE IAM framework represents a sophisticated approach, integrating advanced modelling tools such as Felix, GLOBIOM, and the FABLE Calculator. This framework is designed to explore and develop detailed scenarios and pathways for achieving critical climate stabilization targets while considering the intricate interplay between climate policies, land use, food demand, and socio-economic factors. 

The first part of the report introduces the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs),  which will be the core socioeconomic inputs underlying scenarios in CHOICE. The introduction includes the background and history of SSP pathway development, the most recent version of SSP data update in 2024, the five different SSP narratives that span a wide range of possible socioeconomic futures, and the quantitative drivers under each SSP scenario.

The second section of this report provides an overview of the IAM framework to be applied in CHOICE. Three models with different mechanisms and focuses are introduced: the partial equilibrium land-use model GLOBIOM, the system dynamic model Felix, and the agricultural sector and land use simulator FABLE Calculator. The sectoral coverage, key modelling mechanisms, model applications of these models are introduced.

Following the model description, multiple potential IAM scenario elements in CHOICE are listed and described in detail. The scenario dimensions include:

Climate change mitigation scenarios: The CHOICE framework employs IAMs to craft and evaluate scenarios aimed at meeting specific global temperature targets, such as 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. These scenarios are grounded in the application of global carbon pricing, which influences all sectors of the economy, including energy, industry, and transportation. By incorporating a comprehensive approach to carbon pricing, the framework assesses how these prices impact land use, agricultural practices, and forestry management. This analysis provides a detailed understanding of how different mitigation strategies can be employed to achieve desired climate outcomes and the associated trade-offs involved. 

Food demand scenarios: A significant advancement of the CHOICE framework is its improved representation of consumer behaviour. The model incorporates variations in dietary patterns based on age, sex, and education, enabling more precise projections of future food demand. This nuanced representation allows for the assessment of how dietary changes—such as shifts towards plant-based diets or reductions in food waste—can affect overall sustainability and public health. By analysing these factors, the framework offers insights into the potential impacts of dietary interventions on both environmental outcomes and nutritional security.

Additional scenario dimensions: Beyond climate and food demand, the CHOICE framework explores several other critical scenario dimensions. These include:

• Land protection and biodiversity conservation: Scenarios are developed to evaluate the effects of various land protection strategies and biodiversity conservation measures. This includes assessing the impact of increasing protected areas and implementing biodiversity-friendly land-use regulations.
• Environmental flow constraints: The framework introduces scenarios that consider environmental flow requirements for sustainable water use. This involves restricting irrigation water withdrawals to preserve riverine ecosystems and ensure the availability of water for ecological functions.
• Trade adjustments: The impact of international trade policies is also explored. Scenarios are modelled to assess how trade liberalization or barriers affect land use, food security, and environmental outcomes across regions.

By integrating these diverse modelling elements, the CHOICE framework provides a robust toolbox for analysing potential pathways for addressing climate change. It facilitates targeted policy design by offering a detailed evaluation of trade-offs and co- benefits associated with various strategies. This comprehensive approach equips decision-makers with valuable insights necessary for making effective policies that balance climate goals, food security, and sustainability, ultimately guiding efforts towards a more resilient and sustainable future.

https://www.climatechoice.eu/resources/