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Published January 22, 2026 | Version 2026.01.22

HDBLAST + DBLAST: Kernel-free PTA robustness certificate + RS2 curvature killswitch, cross-band closure, K2/Kν universal knee transfer, and LISA-band feature-search contract (NANOGrav 15yr HD)

  • 1. Independent Researcher

Description

This deposit packages the current “next-level” **HDBLAST + DBLAST** research bundle: a falsifiable chain linking a PTA spectral knee inferred from the NANOGrav 15‑year Hellings–Downs (HD) signal to:

1) a **kernel‑free robustness certificate** against nonparametric covariance misspecification (structured adversaries; Toeplitz + ε‑budget),  
2) an **RS2 curvature / laboratory-length-scale (“ℓ”) killswitch**, and  
3) **cross‑band predictions** including a forced **LISA‑band knee scale** f* and an inferred **bulk offset** y0/ℓ via ξ = exp(−y0/ℓ).

### What’s new in this version (2026.01.22)

- **Theory Contract v3:** locks the knee definition to **f50** (half‑suppression), standardizing the closure map and eliminating “definition slippage”.
- **RS2 universal K2 knee filter:** explicit brane transfer template
  F(x)=((x^2 K2(x))/2)^2 with fixed shape invariants.
- **K2-corrected bulk‑offset inference:** applies +ln(x50)=0.2920 correction when a pipeline-reported knee corresponds to f50.
- **End‑to‑end runner v4 (SciPy‑accelerated):** produces PTA + LISA reportcards and a joint closure verdict (JSON + PDF card).
- **Robustness beyond Toeplitz:** explicit ε‑budget backstop for near‑Toeplitz covariance violations.
- **Minimal RS2 “bulk impulse → brane bang” note:** toy mechanism bridge clarifying the bulk‑to‑brane trigger vs echo-only fork.

### Reproducibility

The deposit includes runnable Python packets and expected input formats. Some steps require external PTA posterior products (not included); the runner documentation specifies inputs and formats.

### Scientific status

This package is a test harness and an explicit constraint chain for a working higher‑dimensional / brane‑inspired hypothesis. If any link fails under improved data, alternative binnings, or independent pipelines, the hypothesis is constrained or falsified.

Files

HDBLAST_TheoryContract_Card_v3_20260122.pdf

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Additional details

Dates

Updated
2025-12-12
vLASTMILE+ update: canonical physical ΔN_eff, updated indices, new referee-ready "rerun all gates" README + scripts, and updated plots/deck.
Updated
2025-12-17
vLASTMILE+ REALONLY v22: add shared-knee coherence, curvature/leave-one-out, covariance sensitivity; GrandStatus v18; ShortPaper v10
Updated
2025-12-29
vKILLSWITCH++ (covariance killswitch; copula‑free bounds; closed‑form n_eff mapping; runnable pipeline + calculator)
Updated
2026-01-06
v28 result add‑on: copula‑free (kernel‑free) certificate applied to NANOGrav 15‑yr KDE FreeSpectra (HD); PASS scorecards for N=10 and N=30; results bundle uploaded.

Software

Programming language
Python
Development Status
Active

References

  • Kass & Raftery (1995), Bayes Factors, JASA
  • NANOGrav Collaboration (2023), 15-year evidence for a gravitational-wave background
  • Randall & Sundrum (1999), RS2
  • Shiromizu, Maeda & Sasaki (2000), effective brane equations
  • Maartens review on brane-world gravity