The Continuity Market: Value Formation in the PPP–GDP Split

Description

This working paper examines the structural divergence between GDP growth (nominal output and asset valuation) and lived purchasing power (PPP) under advanced automation. As productivity gains increasingly concentrate in capital returns while employment-based distribution weakens, societies experience erosion of social continuity in PPP space that is not captured by GDP-based valuation systems.

The paper introduces the concept of the continuity market: a secondary valuation layer that emerges when institutional systems measurably reduce systemic uncertainty in PPP space without commodifying participation. It shows how markets begin to reprice stability indirectly—through insurance, credit, labour, property, and municipal risk—before political consensus forms, and why premature individual-level access or conditioning would structurally destroy this mechanism.

The paper is released as part of a structured document set. Companion documents specify anti-capture enforcement architecture, boundary clarifications, and operational stress tests designed to prevent continuity from becoming a tradable asset while allowing markets to reprice reduced risk at aggregate level.

Note: This work is analytical and descriptive in nature. It examines structural dynamics in economic valuation and does not provide investment advice, policy prescriptions, or guidance for market action.

Contextual Indicator (January 2026): PPP–GDP Divergence Signals

Subsequent to this paper’s release, short-horizon PPP indicators have continued to show persistent misalignment. Notably, the January 29, 2026 update of the The Economist Big Mac Index reports deep and sustained currency undervaluation across parts of emerging Asia (≈ −60%) alongside overvaluation in several advanced economies. While not a long-run PPP model, such persistence is consistent with the paper’s argument that nominal GDP dynamics increasingly decouple from lived PPP reality under automation and structural optimisation. These indicators should be read as surface probes of continuity stress rather than currency forecasts, aligning with the paper’s broader PPP–GDP split and continuity-market framework.

This research is produced independently under the Drive-In s.r.o. research programme.
Readers who wish to support its continuation may do so here: https://ko-fi.com/johnryder99892