Published January 10, 2026 | Version v1
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Spectral Detection of Logistical Phase Transitions in Pandemics: A Multi-Node Early Warning Framework

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Description

This paper introduces a novel computational method for detecting imminent logistical collapse in healthcare infrastructure during pandemic surges. Using the Unified Field Theory-Formalism (UFT-F), we derive a spectral norm indicator, $||V||_{L^{1}}$, which identifies "manifold folding" events—points where hospital coordination becomes non-invertible and NP-hard.

Key Features:

  • Empirical Validation: Backtested against NYC, LA, and Chicago COVID-19 waves with a reproducible 5–15 day lead time before logistical crises.

  • Multi-Node Modeling: Includes a metapopulation mobility simulation showing how logistical stress propagates across urban hubs.

  • Fixed Parameterization: Demonstrates results using identical parameters ($\alpha=13, \beta=100$) across diverse datasets to ensure falsifiability.

  • Operational Protocol: Includes a standardized surveillance protocol for public health professionals to monitor system stability in real-time.

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Additional details

Related works

Is supplement to
Publication: 10.5281/zenodo.18087952 (DOI)
Publication: 10.5281/zenodo.17566371 (DOI)