Welsh National Marine Plan Storyline: Narrative of marine (spatial) planning scenarios explored in the MSPACE project

MSPACE is a £1.7m, 4 year (2021-2025), highly integrated, multidisciplinary project, conceptualised to drive forward the capability of the four UK Nations in designing and implementing climate-smart marine spatial plans (MSP). The projects team brings together natural and social scientists, planning practitioners and industry representatives from across the UK Nations, and global experts in ocean sustainability and climate change. The main ambition of the project is to support the delivery of marine planning 
that addresses the causes and impacts of climate change (i.e. mitigation and adaptation) in a way that is economically feasible and socially acceptable, supporting people and nature for future generations. 
We first delivered an Early Warning System report, infographic and summary for policy makers, which analyses state-of-the-art climate modelling projections and identified opportunities for climate-smart spatial management of UK marine conservation, fisheries and aquaculture. These are based on the identification of areas of our marine waters with different degrees of sensitivity to ongoing climate change. We then mapped the governance structures around four case-study marine plans across the 
UK nations, and the preferences of its stakeholders on marine space.

Using the information generated in the Early Warning System report, this document outlines 4 alternative possible spatial management scenarios for Wales, as follows:
1. The first scenario represents the current marine plan for a region (Business as Usual Scenario). 
2. The second is a climate-smart scenario that uses the information made available in the  MSPACE Early Warning System to prioritise changes in spatial uses to include the specific use of areas identified in the Early Warning System report as having low sensitivity to climate change (i.e. climate change refugia) to maximise environmental and economic goals for marine conservation (Conservation Scenario).
3. The third is the same as the second, except designed to maximise environmental and economic goals for fisheries and aquaculture (Food Provision Scenario). 
4. A fourth scenario takes elements from the other three scenarios to maximise environmental and economic goals for the region (Compromise Scenario).