Manufactured Ambiguity and Hybrid Contestation in the Aegean Sea: Legal Foundations, Strategic Logic, and the Limits of "Grey Zone" Narratives

This extended policy brief examines the concept of “grey zones” in the Aegean Sea as a tool of manufactured ambiguity within hybrid contestation strategies. It argues that such narratives do not reflect an existing legal reality, but rather aim to erode clarity where international law is explicit.

Drawing on the Treaty of Lausanne (1923), the Paris Peace Treaties (1947), and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, 1982), the study demonstrates that sovereignty and maritime entitlements in the Aegean are among the most clearly defined globally. The analysis focuses on how hybrid strategies operate through perception management, incremental pressure, and strategic fatigue, and why legal clarity and institutional consistency function as decisive forms of deterrence.

This work is intended as a policy-oriented contribution to debates on hybrid threats, strategic deterrence, and international law in the Eastern Mediterranean.