Demographic Change and the Future of the United Kingdom: 2022-2122

This paper presents projections for the UK population in terms of race and ethnicity, country of birth, and religious identity.

• Between the years 2025 and 2050, the share of the population that is White British will decline from 73% to 57%, then 44% by 2075, and 33.7% by the year 2100.
• Between the years 2025 and 2050, the share of the population that is non-White, will increase from 19.7% to 34.8%, 48% by 2075 and 59.3% by 2100.
• When White British is distinguished as a separate ethnic group from ‘White Other’, the White British will become a minority in the UK by the year 2063.
• Between the years 2025 and 2100, the share of the population that is UK-born and who are not second-generation migrants in the projection period will fall dramatically, from 81% to 39%, while the share of the population comprised of people who were born overseas will increase from 18% to almost 26%.
• When the foreign-born population is combined with their offspring, the combined proportion of the projected foreign-born and second-generation population will rise to 33.5% of the overall UK population in 2050, 47.5% by 2075 and 60.6% by 2100.
• In other words, by the end of the current century, by 2100, around six in ten people in the UK will either not have been born in the UK or born to UK-born parents.
• Between the years 2025 and 2050, the share of the UK population that is non-Muslim will fall from 93% in 2025 to 88.8% in 2050, to 84.8% by 2075 and then to 80.8% by the year 2100. At the same time, the share
that is Muslim will rise from 7% in 2025, to 11.2% in 2050, 15.2% by 2075, and then to 19.2% by 2100. This means that by the end of the current century close to one in five of all people in the UK will be Muslim