Wildfire Dynamics & Urban Resilience in Tunisia: MODIS-Based Insights (2000–2021)

Description: This poster was presented at the 7th International Congress on Sustainable Development and Space (Saybilder Congress Days, Antalya, November 4–8, 2025). It summarizes a nationwide study of wildfire dynamics at the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) in Tunisia between 2000 and 2021, based on 182,467 high-confidence fire detections from MODIS satellite data.

The research highlights a 52% increase in fire frequency and a 56% rise in mean Fire Radiative Power (FRP), with fire exposure migrating closer to urban centers. Using K-means clustering (k=5), five distinct fire regimes were identified, revealing that the Central-East (Sousse-Monastir) and Northern (Tunis-Bizerte) zones pose the highest cumulative risk due to frequent, high-intensity fires near dense populations.

The poster emphasizes the inadequacy of rural-focused fire management policies and calls for integrated urban resilience strategies, including risk-informed zoning, strategic green infrastructure, and dynamic early warning systems. Beyond Tunisia, the methodology offers a replicable framework for integrating wildfire risk into urban planning across the Mediterranean and other fire-prone, rapidly urbanizing regions.

Keywords: Wildfires, Urban Resilience, MODIS, K-means Clustering, Wildland-Urban Interface, Tunisia, Sustainable Planning, Climate Change