mskamat-droid/SECI-DISCOM-Bias: SECI-DISCOM Bias

Reassessing India's State Energy and Climate Index: Addressing Bias for Aligned Net-Zero Pathways

This study provides the first sensitivity audit and rank volatility analysis of India's State Energy and Climate Index (SECI Round 1, 2022). We identify a significant methodological distortion: the 40% weight assigned to power distribution companies (DISCOMs), which prioritises legacy fiscal health over decarbonisation outcomes. Using stepwise grid simulations for 28 states, we find high rank fragility (\tau< 0.80) when DISCOM weights drop below 20%, revealing that current rankings mask true transition leaders like Maharashtra, while rewarding coal-heavy grids like Punjab. Cross-sectional OLS estimation identifies literacy as the dominant enabler of performance (β= 0.612, p< 0.01). Conversely, forest cover emerges as a structural barrier; mediation analysis reveals that 95% of its negative impact is indirect, operating through suppressed literacy in remote terrains. These findings expose a 'green paradox' where ecologically rich states are penalised for maintaining carbon sinks. We conclude that the SECI is fundamentally non-aligned with India's Net-Zero 2070 goals. An urgent recalibration to a 20% DISCOM threshold is recommended to incentivise genuine climate action in the ensuing SECI-Round 2.

Keywords: Index bias, SECI, India, energy transition, sustainability metrics, human capital, non-fossil renewable energy, Net Zero policy.