O futuro da defesa: Estudos prospectivos e o ensino militar

The Future of Defense: Prospective Studies and Military Education (2025) brings together policy papers and analytical essays developed in the wake of the UNIFA webinar “Futuro da Defesa.” Responding to accelerating technological change, political instability, and increasing systemic complexity, the volume argues that thinking about the future is not speculative but strategically necessary, positioning prospective studies as a rigorous field for examining possibilities, alternatives, and transformations relevant to Brazilian national defense. The chapters offer a multifaceted discussion of how defense institutions can anticipate trends, build scenarios, and develop capabilities for action in complex environments, while also confronting the challenge of “strategic adherence”—aligning foresight outputs with institutional needs and operational-level realities. Recommendations include institutionalizing foresight through a permanent structure within the Ministry of Defense to centralize and standardize procedures and to strengthen scenario design across strategic and operational levels. In parallel, the volume highlights modeling, simulation, and wargaming as essential methods for training and decision-making (from strategic to tactical levels) supporting doctrine testing, hypothesis exploration, and dynamic learning cycles. Overall, the book advances an integrated agenda linking foresight, simulation-based methods, organizational culture, and educational innovation to strengthen defense planning and professional formation in the 21st century.