A theoretical paper on the complementary role played by people with developmental disabilities in the efficient market hypothesis

The Technical University of Munich has published a paper arguing that ADHD correlates with entrepreneurial suitability.

I have also previously published a paper arguing that the subtype of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) that "is interested in finance and has mild or no ADHD" (assuming no intellectual disability or severe secondary disability) (assuming the disability is not severe enough to interfere with daily life) is suited to investing.

Osakabe, K. (2025). Theoretical paper on investment performance of subtypes of autism spectrum disorder. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17527479

However, there is a theory in economics called "random walk theory" and "efficient market hypothesis".

"Random walk theory" assumes that all stock price movements are completely random.

If stock price movements are entirely random and efficient, then both entrepreneurial success and investor success can be interpreted as coincidence.

Random walk theory contradicts the ADHD entrepreneurial aptitude theory proposed by the Technical University of Munich and my own theory of ASD investor aptitude.

In this paper, I present a theoretical framework that addresses this contradiction.

In short, I believe that random walk theory and efficient market hypothesis is fundamentally correct, but there are some exceptions.

I believe that people with developmental disorders play a role in complementing these exceptional behaviors.

I named this hypotheses the Neurodiversity-EMH Complement Hypothesis (NECH).

I believe that ADHD may be well-suited to first-mover advantage.

I believe that ADHD may be suited to event-driven investment approaches.

I also believe that certain subtypes of autism spectrum disorder may be well-suited to exploiting long-term reversals (caused by overreactions during market crashes).

I believe that autism spectrum disorder may be well-suited to capturing a size premium.

The main text, except for the title and abstract of the paper, is written in Japanese.