SURFER v3.0 + Tipping Elements: Model code for "Tipping interactions and cascades on multimillennial time scales in a model of reduced complexity" and "Tipping cascades may lock the Earth system on a pathway towards a melthouse"

This repository contains the SURFER v3.0 + Tipping Elements (TEs) model and the analysis code used to reproduce all figures and results of the papers: 

1) “Tipping interactions and cascades on multimillennial time scales in a model of reduced complexity”.

2) "Tipping cascades may lock the Earth system on a pathway towards a melthouse". 

SURFER v3.0 is a reduced-complexity Earth system model with a process-based carbon cycle that can simulate CO₂, global temperature, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification metrics across timescales from decades to millions of years.

The extended version (v3.0 + TEs) includes 6 coupled tipping elements : Greenland Ice Sheet (GRIS), West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), East Antarctic Subglacial Basins (EASB), East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Amazon rainforest (AMAZ); and 2 monostable nonlinear elements : boreal permafrost (PERM), and Arctic sea ice (ASI).

This repository provides:

• Python 3.11 code and Jupyter notebooks (SURFER_v3_TEs.ipynb, monte_carlo.ipynb, sample_size_check.ipynb, figures_cascades.ipynb, , figures_hothouse.ipynb);

• Environment files (environment.yml, environment_full.yml);

• Licenses and references.

The dataset with model output required to reproduce the figures is available separately at Zenodo [https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17276820].

Please see the included README.md for detailed instructions on setup and figure reproduction.