Predicting Interstate Conflict 72 Days in Advance: A Topological Approach to Weaponized Interdependence

We present a mathematical framework for predicting interstate conflict based on the geometric properties of bilateral economic-diplomatic relationships. The Helicity metric H = V × A measures structural fragility by quantifying the alignment between economic flux (V) and diplomatic trust (A). The Integration-Alignment Divergence theorem identifies the configuration in which conflict becomes structurally inevitable: when diplomatic alignment inverts while economic integration persists—operationalizing "weaponized interdependence" (Farrell & Newman, 2019).

Validated on 47 militarized interstate disputes (1990–2022), the model achieves F1 = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68–0.78) with mean lead time of 58 days, outperforming realist, liberal, and event-based baselines. The Russia-Ukraine dyad triggered a Level 4 (Singularity) alert on December 14, 2021—72 days before the February 2022 invasion.

LIVE AT: https://helicity.io/#experimental 

Data Sources

• Trade: UN Comtrade (https://comtrade.un.org/)
• Energy: IEA, BP Statistical Review
• Voting: Voeten UN General Assembly Data (https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:1902.1/12379)
• Treaties: ATOP v5.0 (http://www.atopdata.org/)
• Sanctions: Global Sanctions Database (https://www.globalsanctionsdatabase.com/)
• Conflict: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset (https://ucdp.uu.se/)

License

Code: MIT License Data: CC-BY 4.0 (processed data); original sources retain their respective licenses

Contact

Bee Rosa Davis | bee_davis@alumni.brown.edu | https://helicity.io

Keywords: conflict prediction, international relations, weaponized interdependence, geopolitical risk, topological methods, helicity, phase transitions, early warning systems, commercial peace, Davis Framework