Risk and Return Dynamics of Bitcoin and Conventional Currencies in Portfolio Diversification

Industry 4.0 and digital transformation have accelerated the emergence of virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies. Among them, Bitcoin, a virtual currency, has captured significant attention from both finance theorists and practitioners, achieving the highest market capitalization to date.

The objective of this study is to examine the behavior and interrelationships between Bitcoin and several traditional financial assets within the framework of an international diversification strategy that combines conventional and crypto assets. In this context, Bitcoin is considered as a potential new asset class for portfolio diversification.

To explore this relationship, we analyze the links between Bitcoin and a selection of major currencies—EUR, GBP, and JPY—as well as certain commodities. The study employs the Value at Risk (VaR) approach using three empirical methods, complemented by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a robustness measure, given its ability to capture tail risk more effectively than VaR.

Using daily data from October 29, 2016, to October 23, 2020, the findings reveal that including Bitcoin in a diversified portfolio can significantly enhance risk–return characteristics. These results provide new insights for portfolio managers and investors seeking optimal diversification strategies in the context of digital finance.