Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Iraq Under Structural Challenges: An Econometric Analysis for the Period (2004-2024)

This research aims to analyze and describe the reality of the financial and monetary economy in Iraq from 2004 to 2024, a period marked by profound structural transformations. The research focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy tools used by the Central Bank of Iraq, specifically the foreign currency auction window, in achieving monetary stability. It also examines the nature of rentier fiscal policy and its dominant impact on macroeconomic variables. Methodologically, the research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach to review the institutional framework and challenges, complemented by a quantitative econometric approach to investigate the dynamic relationships between variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to test the short- and long-run relationships between real GDP (as the dependent variable) and the money supply (M2) , government spending, exchange rate, and oil prices (as independent variables). The analysis indicates that fiscal policy, directly linked to oil revenues, has the greatest impact on economic activity, while the effectiveness of monetary policy remains limited due to dollarization , weak credit access for the banking sector, and the dominance of budget financing requirements (Al-Ani, 2020; Central Bank of Iraq, 2023). Accordingly, the research recommends adopting structural reforms aimed at diversifying the economy, strengthening the independence of the central bank, and developing the financial sector to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and support sustainable growth .