Artificial Intelligence as a Lever and Risk of Institutional Decoupling in Developing Countries: The Regulatory Role of Prophylactic Governance

Abstract

This study addresses the dual challenge of Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption in Developing Countries (DCs). While AI is presented as a necessary lever to compensate for chronic institutional gaps and weak information systems (IS), past experience with imported Performance Measurement Systems (PMS) suggests a high risk of institutional decoupling. Using a purely conceptual and theoretical methodology based on a systematic narrative review of contingency theory, institutional theory, and algorithmic rationality, this article extends the Hybrid and Contextual Model (MHCP). We develop a framework demonstrating that AI simultaneously poses a triple risk of decoupling—technological, institutional, and normative—if deployed technocentrically. The core finding is formulated through three theoretical propositions positioning Prophylactic Governance (P2) as the critical moderator of the risk induced by algorithmic rationality. P2-AI, acting synergistically with Performance Culture (P1) and Structural Decentralization (P3) is essential to guarantee strategic alignment with Global and Sustainable Performance. This research transforms the AI challenge from a technical problem into a proactive governance imperative for DCs, offering a strategic framework for anticipatory governance and digital sovereignty.