MATLAB plotter for the thermal models used in "Scenario-based and physics-informed forecast of the evolution of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)"
Authors/Creators
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1.
University of Geneva
- 2. INGV Researcher
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3.
INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano
Description
Abstract :
Campi Flegrei, which last erupted in 1538, has undergone unrest with periods of increased seismicity, gas emission and ground deformation in the 50’s, 70’s 80’s and since 2005. The eventual culmination of this last episode in an eruption, will directly impact on 2 million people living in the region, making it of critical concern for scientists, authorities and the general public. Here, we use existing data, thermal modelling and calculations of the physical properties of magma, to provide plausible future scenarios, under the assumption that magma injection at 4-5 km depth is responsible for the unrest episodes recorded since 1950. We show that the ascent of magma and magmatic fluids from depth is necessary to explain the measurements collected since 1950. Our calculations suggest that potentially eruptible magma is present today at ~4 km depth, but that eruption may be suppressed by the combination of small reservoir volume, magma compressibility, and viscous deformation of the surrounding crust. We conclude that efforts should focus on evaluation of the structural integrity of the crust overlying the shallow magma reservoir.
Methods
We numerically compute the thermal evolution of a magma system by solving the heat equation for a quasi-3d (axisymmetric) geometry and a finite elements approach on MATLAB. Our model considers punctual injection of a series of thin cylindrical horizontal sills of constant thickness and variable lateral extent along with heat conduction and release of latent heat. Sills are injected at a constant depth while the material below each sill is advected downward. Boundary conditions were fixed temperature at the base and surface and no horizontal heat flux across the lateral boundaries.
Initially, a constant temperature gradient in the vertical direction was assumed.We simulate the injection of magma at its liquidus temperature of 1250 °C (Fowler et al., 2006, Journal of Petrology) at 4 km depth and a temperature of the rocks surrounding the magma of 540 °C, considering a thermal gradient of 130 °C/km, which is conservative considering the values measured in borehole down to about 3 km depth within the Campi Flegrei caldera, reaching 200 °C/km (Carlino, 2018, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research). We perform the calculations for sills of 15 m and 25 m thickness adjusting the footprint of the sills (considered cylindrical) to match the minimum and maximum volume estimated for each episode of magma injection (1950, 1970, 1982, and every year from 2005 until 2035).
Files
model_outputs.zip
Additional details
Dates
- Created
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2025-12-02
Software
- Programming language
- MATLAB