A penal data analysis on the effects of climate variations on malaria incidences among children 0-5 years in Uganda

Despite global reductions in malaria due to intensified interventions, it remains a major cause of hospitalizations and deaths among Ugandan children under five. Uganda’s changing climate may be influencing malaria incidence in this vulnerable group. This study examined the relationship between climate variations and malaria prevalence among children under five across 13 Ugandan districts, selected for their high disease burden and susceptibility to climate change.

Using a retrospective research design and penalized data analysis, district-level random effects were incorporated into a negative binomial regression model. Results showed a positive association between malaria cases and minimum temperature (coefficient = 0.0333, p < 0.0000) as well as vegetation cover (NDVI, coefficient = 0.3240, p < 0.0000). Conversely, maximum temperature was negatively associated (coefficient = -0.0099, p < 0.0000). Rainfall was insignificant in the combined model but significant in separate analyses.

Regional variations emerged, with particularly high incidence in West Nile districts Yumbe (214), Adjumani (168), Koboko (150), and Karamoja’s Kotido (141), Nabilatuk (196), and Napak (130). Findings highlight the influence of temperature and vegetation on malaria prevalence, underscoring the need for region-specific malaria control strategies that integrate climatic and environmental factors.