Influence of Climate Variability on The Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover in the Sub-Soudanian Sector: The Case of the Badenou Classified Forest, Northern Côte D'ivoire

Abstract :

In a context of global change marked by climate evolution, tropical forest ecosystems are under increasing pressure that threatens their integrity and biodiversity. This study quantifies the impact of climatic parameters on the evolution of land use/cover in the Badenou Classified Forest (northern Côte d’Ivoire) between 1990 and 2022. By cross-referencing Landsat images and climatic data (temperatures, precipitation, PDSI, SPI) via Google Earth Engine, and applying statistical tests (Spearman correlations, PCA, regressions), significant relationships were highlighted. The results show a distinct vulnerability of natural ecosystems to climatic stresses. Dense dry forests and galleries regress with drought (PDSI: ρ = -0.502, p = 0.003). The low density shrub savannah declines sharply with rising temperatures (Tmax: ρ = -0.613, p < 0.0001). Water bodies decrease during dry periods (PDSI: ρ = -0.545, p = 0.001). Anthropogenic dynamics present contrasting responses. Fallow lands decrease with temperature (Tmax: ρ = -0.413, p = 0.017), while perennial crops expand their reach under these same conditions (Tmax: ρ = +0.413, p = 0.017). An increase in bare soils and built-up areas is correlated with humid conditions (SPI: ρ = +0.362, p = 0.039). This research demonstrates that climatic variables, particularly temperatures and drought indices, are major explanatory factors for landscape transformations. These quantified results provide an essential scientific basis for the development of adaptive management policies, reconciling biodiversity preservation and local development in a context of global change.