Predictive Model of Employee Performance Based on Job Satisfaction and Organizational Culture: A Quantitative Approach at the North Sulawesi Provincial Office of the National Land Agency

Employee performance is a fundamental determinant of organizational success, particularly within the public sector where service quality directly influences public trust. Recent surveys by the Ministry of Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform (2023) indicated that 68% of Indonesian citizens remain dissatisfied with public services, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen employee performance in government institutions. Among various determinants, job satisfaction and organizational culture have consistently been recognized as critical factors, yet empirical evidence in the Indonesian public sector remains limited and inconclusive. This study aims to analyze the direct and indirect effects of organizational culture and job satisfaction on employee performance, with a particular focus on the mediating role of job satisfaction. A quantitative research design was employed using path analysis with SmartPLS. The population consisted of all employees of the Regional Office of the National Land Agency (BPN) North Sulawesi (n = 114), surveyed through a structured questionnaire. Validity and reliability tests confirmed the robustness of the instrument, and model evaluation was conducted through R², SRMR, NFI, and bootstrapping procedures. The results demonstrate that organizational culture positively and significantly affects both employee performance (β=0.32; p< 0.05) and job satisfaction (β=0.56; p< 0.001). Furthermore, job satisfaction exerts a stronger direct effect on performance (β=0.46; p< 0.01) and mediates the relationship between organizational culture and performance. The model explains 68% of the variance in employee performance, indicating substantial explanatory power. In conclusion, both organizational culture and job satisfaction serve as key drivers of employee performance in public institutions. The findings provide theoretical contributions by extending evidence to the public sector context and practical implications for policymakers to strengthen organizational values, reward systems, and career development strategies to enhance public service delivery.