2019 Status of Akia-Maniitsoq caribou population, Central region, West Greenland. Technical Report No. 124

This report presents results from the aerial survey carried out by helicopter in 
early March 2019, for the Akia-Maniitsoq caribou population inhabiting the 
Central region in West Greenland. This population was last surveyed in March 
2010. New estimates of abundance were overdue. Helicopter surveys in 2001, 
2005 and 2010 used strip transect counts. The March 2019 helicopter survey, 
however, used Distance Sampling methods.
For March 2019, the Akia-Maniitsoq caribou population abundance was 
estimated at 48,941 caribou (95% CI: 37,612 – 63,682; CV = 0.131; SE = 6390), with 
a density of 4.2 ± 0.5 caribou/km2 (95% CI: 3.2–5.5). The distance sampling 
estimate was precise given the excellent CV value (0.13). Survey coverage was 
9.6% (truncated data), which is a ca. five-fold improvement from the 2001, 2005, 
2010 strip transect count surveys, where coverage was always below 2%. 
Despite 18 years of harvest management aimed at controlling caribou 
abundance and density, by March 2019 Akia-Maniitsoq caribou population size 
was double what it was in 2010. Confidence Intervals for the 2010 and 2019 
survey estimates do not overlap, therefore we conclude the Akia-Maniitsoq 
population size truly doubled over the nine-year period, 2010-2019. 
The overall density estimate for the Akia-Maniitsoq population was 4.2 caribou 
per km2. This value is much greater than the management recommended target 
of 1.2 caribou per km2 (Kingsley & Cuyler 2002, Cuyler et al. 2007). Further, 
density in the Akia sub-area averaged 6.6 caribou per km2. Exceeding the target 
caribou density is assumed to raise the risk of overgrazing and thus decline in 
caribou abundance.
The late-winter calf percentage and calf recruitment were the highest ever 
recorded from helicopter surveys. Values remained high even after the 
unusually high number of orphan calves (n = 83) were removed from the 
calculations. The 2019 ratio of 49 bulls to 100 cows, reversed the downward 
trend (from 58 to 38 bulls per 100 cows) in 2001-2010 period for animals age > 1-
year. We conclude the 2019 demographics of the Akia-Maniitsoq population 
provides potential for further growth in abundance, albeit notwithstanding 
future catastrophic stochastic events, including extreme weather and pathogen 
outbreaks.
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Environmental conditions during the 2019 survey provided extraordinary 
camouflage for caribou. Pooling environmental covariates into a single index for 
camouflage will improve detection function modelling. Skilled observers and 
flying helicopters low and slow were critical factors permitting detection of 
caribou, specifically because 25% of all groups remained stationary. 
Beyond population parameters, results of interest included relatively low 
elevations, mean 351 m, used by the Akia-Maniitsoq caribou population in early 
March. Among other things, this reflects the relative abundance of low 
elevations in the region. Further, although antlers are typical on female caribou, 
few (32%) cows possessed antlers in the Akia-Maniitsoq population.