Published November 17, 2025 | Version v1
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Can We Count on the Land? Exploring the Uncertainty of Land-based Mitigation Strategies

Creators

  • 1. EDMO icon Météo France, National Center for Meteorological Research
  • 2. University of Georgia (USA)
  • 3. ROR icon Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 4. ROR icon CICERO Center for International Climate Research

Contributors

Project leader:

  • 1. ROR icon Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

Description

A research highlight on the climate, biogeophysical and socio-economic dimensions of land-based carbon dioxide removal (afforestation/reforestation and BECCS), with a particular focus on how uncertainties in land carbon stocks and local impacts shape mitigation potential and risk.

 
 

 

 

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Additional details

Related works

Is cited by
Other: 10.5281/zenodo.10357542 (DOI)

Dates

Created
2025-11-17

References

  • Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Gidden, M. J., Lamb, W. F., Nemet, G. F., Minx, J. C., Buck, H., Burke, J., Cox, E., Edwards, M. R., Fuss, S., Johnstone, I., Müller-Hansen, F., Pongratz, J., Probst, B. S., Roe, S., Schenuit, F., Schulte, I., Vaughan, N. E. (eds.) (2024) The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2024 - 2nd Edition. https://www.stateofcdr.org doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/F85QJ
  • Moustakis, Y., Nützel, T., Wey, HW. et al. (2024) Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model. Nat Commun 15, 8235, doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x
  • Shindell, D., Rogelj, J. (2025) Preserving carbon dioxide removal to serve critical needs. Nature Climate Change 15, 452–457, doi-org.insu.bib.cnrs.fr/10.1038/s41558-025-02251-y
  • May, M. M., Rehfeld, K. (2022) Negative Emissions as the New Frontier of Photoelectrochemical CO2 Reduction. Adv. Energy Mater. 12, 2103801. doi.org/10.1002/aenm.202103801
  • Egerer, S., Falk, S., Mayer, D., Nützel, T., Obermeier, W. A., and Pongratz, J. (2024) How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation, Biogeosciences, 21, 5005–5025, doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024
  • Harper, A.B., Powell, T., Cox, P.M. et al. (2018) Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets. Nat Commun 9, 2938 (2018), doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z
  • Waller L, Rayner T, Chilvers J, et al. (2020) Contested framings of greenhouse gas removal and its feasibility: Social and political dimensions. WIREs Clim Change, 11, e649. doi.org/10.1002/wcc.649
  • Rocha, M., Abrahão, G., Gasser, T., & Sanderson, B. (2023). From Earth System Models to Integrated Assessment Models: Bridging the gap in climate modelling. Zenodo doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10357542
  • Harper, A.B., Littleton, E.W., Egerer, S., Nützel, T., Fisher, R., Aas, K., Abrahoe, G., Sanderson, B., Pongratz, J. Impacts of bioenergy crops on the carbon cycle and surface energy budget in current generation land surface models (in preparation)
  • Harper, A.B., Littleton, E.W., Egerer, S., Nützel, T., Fisher, R., Aas, K., Peylin, P., Bastrikov, V., Miller, A.M., Townsend, B., Abrahoe, G., Sanderson, B., Pongratz, J. Land carbon sink response to future climate change, afforestation, and reforestation, and implications for relying on the land for climate mitigation (in preparation)
  • Abrahão, G., Heinke, J., Crawford, M., Steibert, N., Tang, G., Kriegler, E., Rogelj, J., Kalidindi, S., Bauer, N., Strefler, J., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenöder, F., Klein, D., Mueller, C., Karstens, K., Popp, A., Harper, A., Aas, K., Fisher, R., Lewis, J., Nicholls, Z.; Carbon cycle uncertainties and the role of the land in ambitious mitigation pathways (in preparation)
  • Riahi, K., R. Schaeffer, J. Arango, K. Calvin, C. Guivarch, T. Hasegawa, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, R. Matthews, G.P. Peters, A. Rao, S. Robertson, A.M. Sebbit, J. Steinberger, M. Tavoni, D.P. van Vuuren, 2022: Mitigation pathways compatible with lo ng-term goals. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contributionof Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.005