Prediction Validation Supplement — Phantom Mass Model
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Prediction Validation Supplement — Phantom Mass Model
This document summarizes the 13 predictions made for interstellar object 3I/ATLAS under the Phantom Mass Model prior to the release of observational data.
It includes 11 confirmed predictions, 2 pending predictions awaiting final data, and clarifies items excluded from the prediction set.
The supplement serves as a clear record of the model’s predictive performance and timeline.
Update (Nov 2025): Prediction #8 (Asymmetrical coma) is now Confirmed based on JWST and A&A reports describing a predominantly asymmetric coma.
---Update– Released November 16, 2025
New observations from NASA, ESA, JWST, and the Virtual Telescope Project confirm
12 out of the 13 predictions presented in this work.
One prediction (rotation-axis data) remains pending.
No predictions have been contradicted.
Update — November 19, 2025
New NASA observations of interstellar object 3I/ATLAS released today report a measurable non-gravitational acceleration. The magnitude of this acceleration (~5×10⁻⁷ m/s²) aligns with the value predicted in this work prior to the NASA release. This update documents that the predicted acceleration and the newly published data are consistent within scientific uncertainty.
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Related works
- Is supplement to
- Publication: 10.5281/zenodo.17388800 (DOI)
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- Collected
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2025-11-15Prediction Validation Supplement — Phantom Mass Model This document summarizes the 13 predictions made for interstellar object 3I/AT