ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARRIAGE RATE IN ARMENIA USING THE REGRESSION METHOD

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to present and analyze the fundamental components of the demographic situation in the Republic of Armenia, as defined by the main indicators of marriages and divorces. It should be noted that the institution of marriage serves as an important indicator not only of social but also of economic and demographic processes; therefore, an adequate analysis is possible only within the framework of multifactorial observation. The article presents an empirical study of socio-economic and demographic factors influencing the dynamics of marriages, using regression analysis methods. As a result of the analysis, factors that have a statistically significant impact on the formation of the marriage rate were identified. At the same time, a forecast of the number of marriages and divorces for 2024–2027 was developed, allowing for an assessment of possible future developments and trends. The Durbin–Watson test was applied to detect autocorrelation in the time series, leading to the identification of the main patterns and trends.

The findings of the study can serve as a basis for developing policies aimed at strengthening the institution of marriage and family, as well as for improving demographic forecasting.