Strategic decision-making in uncertainty: Integrating forward-looking scenario planning and multi-criteria analysis for adaptive reuse projects

Background and aim. Adaptive reuse enhances circularity by repurposing buildings, reducing carbon emissions, and preserving heritage. However, decision-making is complex due to stakeholder conflicts, regulations, and uncertainties. This study introduces an integrated framework combining Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Fuzzy-TOPSIS to support structured, participatory decision-making.

Methods and Data. A mixed-method approach integrates CIB for scenario development, AHP for stakeholder-driven prioritization, and Fuzzy-TOPSIS for ranking reuse scenarios. A hypothetical case study demonstrates the framework’s applicability.

Findings. The integration of CIB, AHP, and Fuzzy-TOPSIS provides a structured decision-making approach that enhances scenario coherence, aligns decisions with stakeholder priorities, and improves scenario ranking robustness. The framework enables systematic exploration of adaptive reuse scenarios, ensuring alignment with stakeholder objectives.

Theoretical / Practical / Societal implications. Theoretically, this study advances scenario-based decision-making by integrating scenario development and decision-making approaches, addressing gaps in adaptive reuse decision frameworks. Practically, it provides policymakers, urban planners, and developers with a structured tool to navigate complex decision-making in adaptive reuse projects. Societally, it supports sustainable and inclusive urban development by fostering consistent, long-term strategies that balance environmental, economic, and social considerations.