IMPACT OF INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY ON EXCHANGE RATE IN NIGERIA

Abstract: This study empirically examines the influence of institutional quality on exchange rate volatility in Nigeria over the period from 1981 to 2023, utilizing annual data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria, International Country Risk Guide, World Bank, and National Bureau of Statistics. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, incorporating structural break tests to ensure the robustness of the stationarity properties of the variables. Institutional quality is measured through contractintensive money, revenue source volatility, and political risk. The results confirm a long-run relationship between exchange rate volatility and institutional quality indicators. Specifically, political risk and revenue source volatility exhibit a positive and statistically significant impact on exchange rate volatility in both the short and long run, while contract-intensive money is positively significant only in the short run. These findings underscore the critical role of institutional quality in mitigating exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. To achieve greater exchange rate stability, policymakers should prioritize political restructuring, economic diversification to reduce reliance on volatile oil revenues, and robust exchange rate management strategies.