Availability of Secondary School Vacancies and Transition Rates of Pupils from Primary to Secondary Education in Mbarali District, Tanzania

This study assessed how the availability of secondary school vacancies affects the transition rates of pupils from primary to secondary education in Mbarali District, Tanzania. Guided by Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Systems Theory, the study adopted a descriptive and inferential design using mixed methods. Data were collected from 20 teachers, 40 parents, and 40 students through structured questionnaires and interviews. Descriptive statistics revealed that 80% of respondents identified inadequate classrooms and long distances as major barriers to transition, while regression analysis confirmed that availability of school vacancies (p = .035) significantly predicts transition rates (R² = 0.621). The findings demonstrate that limited school capacity remains a structural bottleneck hindering educational progression in Mbarali District. The study recommends that policymakers expand secondary school capacity and review admission policies to enhance equitable access to education.