BIO-CLIMATIC MODELLING OF SOME ENDEMIC AND RARE SPECIES OF THE FAMILY LAMIACEAE DISTRIBUTED IN THE NUROTA BOTANICAL-GEOGRAPHICAL REGION

The impact of climate change on endemic species leads to highly negative consequences and increases the risk of their extinction. In every region, the reduction of the distribution range of endemic species causes changes in the local flora. This is especially the case when it occurs alongside the recent increase of alien species, which may result in the disappearance of endemic species from the local flora. Therefore, it is essential to assess endemic and rare species in each region using modern methods, which makes it possible to obtain scientific information about their future. In this study, the results are presented on the future distribution patterns of the rare and endemic species Lagochilus olgae Kamelin, Thymus subnervosus Vved., Nabiev & Tulyag, Dracocephalum nuratavicum Adylov, and Phlomis nubilans Zakirov, whose natural populations in the Nurota region have been well studied. The distribution of these species during 1970–2000 and their predicted distribution under the RCP8.5 scenario for the year 2070 were analyzed.