Published October 20, 2025 | Version v1
Dataset Open

Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomay

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam Erasmus School of Economics

Description

Available are the STATA dataset and all accompanying STATA do-files to generate the tables and graphs in the article entitled "Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomay". This article is forthcoming (or published) in Empirical Economics. 

Abstract of the article: Sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets. However, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data. As a result, they often serve as a field laboratory for studying financial markets. This study examines 25 seasons of English Premier League matches, revealing consistent non-transitive patterns in match outcomes among various triads (groups of three clubs). These empirical findings are difficult to rationalize and represent a notable anomaly. Bookmakers ignore the non-transitive patterns when setting odds. Faced with a trade-off between efficiency using historical information and maintaining consistency when setting their odds, they prioritize consistency.

The dataset has the following information:

hometeam = team playing home match
awayteam = team playing away match
fthg = full-time home goals
ftag = full-time away goals
b365h, b365d, b365a = betting odds b365 home-draw-away
iwh, iwd,iwa = betting odds iw home-draw-away
whh, whd, wha = betting odds wh home-draw-away
Seizoen = season

 

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