How Institutional Quality Drives Financial Advancement in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT: This study uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to analyze time-series data from 2010 to 2022 in order to investigate the relationship between foreign exchange rate policies and the saving-investment balance in emerging markets. We examine the effects of various exchange rate regimes, from fixed to floating, on the balance between national savings and investment using panel data from 15 emerging economies. According to our research, nations with more accommodating currency rate policies are better able to strike a balance between saving and investing, particularly during periods of external economic shocks. The ARIMA model reveals that exchange rate flexibility serves as a crucial automatic stabilizer, reducing the need for direct policy interventions. Additionally, we identify that institutional quality and financial market development significantly moderate this relationship. These results have important implications for policymakers in emerging markets who are considering exchange rate regime choices and their broader macroeconomic stability objectives.