Assessing Home-Field Advantage in the Presidents Cup: Impact on Competitive Balance and Team Performance

The Presidents Cup provides a unique setting to analyze home-field advantage (HFA) in a two-team competition with zero-sum scoring. Our analysis identifies a statistically significant HFA differential of 4.13 points, corresponding to a 2.07-point advantage per team. Although the event alternates host locations, this advantage does not fully offset the overall scoring disparity once ability differences are controlled for, suggesting that contextual factors—such as team cohesion within Team USA—may shape competitive balance.

At the player level, we find no evidence that golfers perform above or below their Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) in Presidents Cup play, with a non-significant coefficient estimated near zero. This reflects the inherent randomness of golf from shot to shot, hole to hole, and round to round. While OWGR effectively captures long-term ability, it is a poor predictor of short-term, round-level performance.

After accounting for HFA and ability differences, we estimate that Team USA holds a significant 3.24-point advantage over Team International, corresponding to a 6.47-point swing in overall differential. These findings highlight the enduring impact of HFA in the Presidents Cup and underscore the importance of team chemistry and leadership in shaping outcomes in international team-based golf competitions.