Turmoil in Geopolitics and the Future of Political Economy and Trade Alliances: A Critical Analysis and Way-out

This paper critically examines recent turmoil in international geopolitics and its repercussions for the politicaleconomy and the architecture of global trade alliances. Drawing on event-based analyses (notably the Russia–Ukraine war), studies of economic statecraft (sanctions, export controls, investment screening), and literature on regional trade frameworks and supply-chain resilience, the paper synthesizes empirical findings and presents policy prescriptions for preserving resilient openness. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines qualitative scenario mapping with quantitative secondary-data analysis of trade and commodity disruptions, the paper also shows how shocks transmit through commodity markets and supply chains, how states and firms adjust via hedging strategies, and how trade alliances—regional and plurilateral—are likely to evolve under pressure. The findings emphasize diversified openness (not autarky), strengthened regional hubs, updated multilateral rules for digital and investment governance, and calibrated technology and financial controls that balance security with growth. The paper concludes with actionable recommendations for middle powers and multilateral institutions to sustain economic interdependence while managing strategic risk.