ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING UNDER CONDITIONS OF ACTIVE URBANIZATION

The article discusses economic and mathematical models for forecasting population size and the number of families on the housing waiting list, as well as planning and designing residential micro-districts with a fixed population size, taking into account demographic processes.

Forecasting housing construction based on demographic models, which make it possible to consider the complex structure of the population, the dynamics of urbanization, the distribution of families by type, and other parameters, is a highly relevant task. It is important not only to estimate the total population size but also to determine the necessary parameters of a micro-district: apartment structure, building area, sizes of infrastructure facilities, communal service objects, etc., ensuring optimal housing distribution.

Two algorithms are considered. The first is based on constructing a probability transition matrix for families moving from one state to another, taking into account urbanization processes. The second algorithm is based on the Markov chain method, which allows analyzing the dynamics of demographic changes over several years and forming the corresponding stochastic matrix.