Published October 2, 2025 | Version v1
Working paper Open

Beyond the Dark Forest: A Comprehensive Reassessment and Enhanced Theoretical Framework for Galactic Civilization Dynamics

  • 1. ROR icon Singapore University of Social Sciences

Description

This paper presents a comprehensive reassessment of Liu Cixin's Dark Forest Theory through systematic comparative analysis, enhanced mathematical modeling, and integration of recent empirical research. Building upon critical evaluation of the original theory's limitations, we develop the Adaptive Equilibrium Theory (AET) as a more sophisticated framework for understanding galactic civilization dynamics. Our analysis employs dimensional analysis for proper parameter anchoring, stochastic modeling of extinction events, asymmetric game theory for civilizations with different technological levels, and systematic comparison with fifteen alternative explanations for the Fermi Paradox. The enhanced framework incorporates non-Western perspectives on cosmic civilizations, recent technosignature research findings, and multi-dimensional transcendence pathways. Through rigorous mathematical modeling and empirical grounding, we demonstrate that stable cooperative equilibria are possible under realistic conditions, challenging the Dark Forest's assumption of inevitable mutual destruction. Our findings suggest that galactic civilizations may exist in a complex adaptive ecosystem characterized by niche specialization, dynamic equilibria, and multiple transcendence pathways rather than universal silence enforced by mutual annihilation. The paper concludes with specific recommendations for SETI/METI strategies and future research directions based on the enhanced theoretical framework.

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Beyond the Dark Forest - A Comprehensive Reassessment and Enhanced Theoretical Framework for Galactic Civilization Dynamics.pdf