Climate Risks and Land Cover Dynamics of the Dibalo-Pingit-Zabali-Malayat River Watershed in Aurora, Philippines

This study investigates the complex interplay between climate-related hazards and land cover changes in the Dibalo-Pingit-Zibali-Malayat (DPZM) River Watershed of Aurora province, Philippines. Historical typhoon data underscore the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather events, emphasizing the critical need to enhance disaster preparedness and management. Land cover analysis from 1988 to 2020 reveals substantial transformations, driven largely by agricultural expansion at the expense of forest cover. Specifically, closed forest areas decreased by 11% annually from 2010 to 2015, while open forest areas decreased by 31% from 1988 to 2003. Conversely, built-up areas, annual crops, and perennial crops increased by 3%, 9%, and 30%, respectively, reflecting growing human pressures from 1988 to 2003. These land cover changes have intensified watershed degradation, as evidenced by increasing landscape fragmentation and declining mean patch size. Such alterations heighten the watershed susceptibility to natural hazards and hinders its capacity to provide essential ecosystem services. The study underscores the urgency for science-informed watershed management strategies to mitigate climate risks and protect the livelihoods of communities reliant on the DPZM River Watershed. Prioritizing sustainable land use practices, forest restoration, and disaster preparedness is crucial for safeguarding the watershed’s ecological integrity and resilience in the face of ongoing challenges.