Modelling the Decarbonization Pathways in the Power Sector in India: An OSeMOSYS application

This study uses an open source energy systems modeling tool (OSeMOSYS) to analyze India’s clean energy transition through three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), more non-fossil power (NFC), and phasing out coal (CPO). By 2025, almost half of India’s power capacity comes from non-fossil sources, but coal is still the main fuel for electricity generation. The analysis finds that scaling up solar and wind by 2030 could reduce power sector carbon emissions by 92% by 2050 (compared to the BAU path). Completely phasing out coal would cut emissions by about 99%.

Transitioning to renewable energy lowers overall electricity costs by reducing dependence on coal purchases and fuel imports. It also shields the power sector from volatile coal prices and mitigates financial risks. To realize these benefits while maintaining a reliable power grid, India will need a significant expansion of renewable generation capacity, enhanced energy storage solutions, and strengthened transmission infrastructure. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 will require well-defined coal retirement strategies, sustained investment, and robust policies to scale up affordable and reliable clean energy.