TAIWAN BLOCKADE & INVASION: A GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE The Case for an Enforced Freedom of Navigation Treaty (FONT)

This paper, Taiwan Blockade & Invasion: A Global Economic Collapse – The Case for an Enforced Freedom of Navigation Treaty (FONT), examines the catastrophic global consequences of a Chinese blockade or invasion of Taiwan. With over $10 trillion in annual economic activity and 21% of global maritime commerce transiting the Taiwan Strait, such a crisis would trigger immediate supply chain collapse, energy shortages, and financial contagion across Asia and beyond.

Drawing on UNCLOS precedents, CSIS wargame findings, and ASEAN’s direct economic dependencies, the paper argues that existing military alliances are insufficient to deter economic warfare at maritime chokepoints. It proposes the establishment of a Freedom of Navigation Treaty (FONT), uniting G7 and ASEAN states to guarantee protected passage, joint naval escorts, automatic sanctions, coordinated insurance markets, and intelligence-sharing.

The analysis highlights China’s own vulnerabilities—particularly its 80% energy import reliance on the Strait of Malacca—and demonstrates how FONT could convert Beijing’s coercive blockade strategy into a self-defeating economic collapse.

Beyond military deterrence, this framework provides ASEAN with a collective shield against coercion, while reinforcing global economic stability through enforceable multilateral mechanisms. The Philippines’ upcoming 2026 ASEAN chairmanship is identified as a historic opportunity to lead this initiative, aligning regional survival with international law and economic security.

The paper concludes with detailed policy recommendations, including automatic economic triggers, ASEAN-led cyber resilience, hedgehog defenses for frontline states, and a $500B stabilization fund. It warns that neutrality offers no safety: without coordinated action, ASEAN faces inevitable economic devastation, societal unrest, and loss of sovereignty.

The choice is clear. The time is now.