Analysis of Ragi Production, Area and Yield Trends in Odisha Using Machine Learning Techniques

Millets are more than simply climate-resilient crop and an ancient grain. These C4 small-seeded grasses have been grown in arid and semi-arid areas of the planet for thousands of years because they can withstand in harsh weather. Climate change is the threat for Agriculture sector and future food security. For sustainable growth of agriculture, may be effectively addressed with millet crops. Promoting millets as a means of creating a food system that is more robust and sustainable. During India's green revolution, millets were eradicated from farmers' fields and consumers' food bowls in favor of rice and wheat cereal crops. Given the rising temperatures and depleting water supplies, millets must be reintroduced as a staple grain. The rainfall requirement of millets such as Sorghum (Jowar), Pearl Millet (Bajra), Finger millet (Ragi) is less than 30% required for growing rice. It is also Found that millets have 30 to 300% more nutritional content compared with other cereals crop. This study investigates the trends in Ragi (finger millet) cultivation, production, and yield in Odisha over a 52-year period (1966-2017). By employing both statistical analysis and machine learning techniques, the research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of historical patterns and future predictions. Key statistical analyses, including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, histogram and density plots, moving average analysis, and decomposition, offer insights into the data's distribution, relationships, and long-term trends. The Random Forest model was utilized to predict future trends, with performance evaluated using RMSE and MAE metrics. Results indicate significant variability in Ragi agriculture, highlighting strong correlations between cultivation area and production, and emphasizing the need for improved predictive models. This study provides valuable information for policymakers and farmers to enhance Ragi production strategies, contributing to sustainable agricultural development in Odisha.