Orbital Slot Predictions V6: Statistical Evidence, Ex-Ante Forecasts, and Explicit Falsification Criteria

This work, authored by Dante Giorgio, presents Version 6 (V6) of the Orbital Slot Predictions framework, consolidating and refining previously published analyses (V2–V5) on resonant orbital architectures in exoplanetary systems.

The study analyzes the orbital configurations of more than 32,000 confirmed exoplanets, identifying recurrent resonance ratios (3:2, 2:1, 5:3) and their statistical behavior across systems with different barycentric and dynamical properties. By stratifying systems according to external momentum and barycentric strength, resonance peaks are shown to deform (widen and shift) in high-perturbation regimes.

Monte Carlo simulations (10,000-equivalent realizations) demonstrate that the observed resonance structures are highly non-random (p < 0.001).

Building on this statistical foundation, V6 provides explicitly preregistered ex-ante forecasts for selected systems (including K2-138, TOI-178, and Kepler-223), with predicted orbital windows narrowed to ±5–10%. These forecasts are intended to be tested against future observational releases.

Clear and explicit falsification criteria are defined. The framework is considered invalidated if:

• resonance peaks disappear in updated datasets,

• newly detected planets fall outside the predicted windows,

• or refined Monte Carlo simulations yield consistency with random noise.

No narrative adjustment is permitted: the framework stands or falls on future data.

This version introduces no new data, predictions, or statistical results, and serves as a methodological consolidation and hardening of the preregistered predictive framework.

Independent reproducibility datasets (e.g., numerical analyses of orbital velocities in individual systems) are provided separately and do not constitute empirical validation of the present predictions.

Version note (V6):
This release refines methodological framing, versioning clarity, and registry alignment.
No datasets, predicted orbital windows, statistical analyses, or falsification criteria have been modified.