Published August 26, 2025 | Version Version 2
Dataset Open

LuccME Nexus sustainable land use and land cover change scenarios for Brazil 2050

Authors/Creators

  • 1. EDMO icon Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
  • 2. ROR icon National Institute for Space Research

Description

Based on two alternative sustainable narratives (more information: https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10154263), we created quantitative land use and land cover change scenarios representing the evolution of land use change until 2050. These scenarios were developed using the LuccME spatially explicit modeling framework (www.luccme.ccst.inpe.br). The analysis also included the quantification of a scenario based on current trends. Our model considers the following land use classes: the percentage of natural forest vegetation (forve), natural non-forest vegetation (couve), planted pasture (pastm), agriculture (agric), planted forest (silvi), and multiple-use mosaic (mosai) (used as a proxy for small-scale family farming).

Calibration and validation period: 2012-2020

Simulation: 2020-2050

Data usage

It's free to use, but make sure to cite the repository.

More information

For additional information about the scenario, please contact Ana Paula Aguiar (ana.aguiar@inpe.br).

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the NEXUS Project, funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation – FAPESP (2022/05856-0 and 2017/22269-2).

Archives

The following archives are available.

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2012-2020.zip: Percentage of land use and land cover from 2012 to 2020 (observed).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_land_cover_type_100km2_2020_2050.zip: Area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_land_cover_type_100km2_2020_2050.zip: Area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_land_cover_type_100km2_2020_2050.zip: Area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip: Increment of area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_increment_land_and_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip: Increment of area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip: Increment of area in hectares of land use and land cover from 2021 to 2050 (simulated).

Technical info (En)

LUCCMEBR_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2012-2020.zip

Metadata

  1. Data type: shapefile
  2. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  3. Source: the proportion of each class in the cell was obtained using the IBGE land use and land cover map as a data source 
    • Data range: 0-1, meaning 0 equals 0% of the class in the cell and 1 equals 100% of the class in the cell.
  4. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2012 - 2020
    • Resolution: bi-anual (2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)
  5. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  6. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forve_12 Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2012.
couve_12 Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2012.
agric_12 Proportion of Agriculture in 2012.
pastm_12 Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2012.
silvi_12 Proportion of Planted Forest in 2012.
mosai_12 Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2012.
forve_14 Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2014.
couve_14 Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2014.
agric_14 Proportion of Agriculture in 2014.
pastm_14 Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2014.
silvi_14 Proportion of Planted Forest in 2014.
mosai_14 Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2014.
forve_16 Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2016.
couve_16 Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2016.
agric_16 Proportion of Agriculture in 2016.
pastm_16 Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2016.
silvi_16 Proportion of Planted Forest in 2016.
mosai_16 Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2016.
forve_18 Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2018.
couve_18 Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2018.
agric_18 Proportion of Agriculture in 2018.
pastm_18 Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2018.
silvi_18 Proportion of Planted Forest in 2018.
mosai_18 Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2018.
forve_20 Proportion of Natural Forest Vegetation in 2020.
couve_20 Proportion of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in 2020.
agric_20 Proportion of Agriculture in 2020.
pastm_20 Proportion of Planted Pasture in 2020.
silvi_20 Proportion of Planted Forest in 2020.
mosai_20 Proportion of multiple-use Mosaic in 2020.
others Proportion of all other classes

Technical info (En)

LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2020_2050.zip

Metadata

  1. Scenario: Historical Trend
  2. Data type: shapefile
  3. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  4. Source: area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year
    • Unit: ha.
  5. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2020-2050
    • Resolution: anually
  6. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  7. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forveAyearX Area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
couveAyearX Area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
agricAyearX Area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
pastmAyearX Area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
silviAyearX Area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
mosaiAyearX Area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
others Area in hectares of all other classes. It doesn't change across years. 

Technical info (En)

LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2020_2050.zip

Metadata

  1. Scenario: Green Transition
  2. Data type: shapefile
  3. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  4. Source: area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year
    • Unit: ha.
  5. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2020-2050
    • Resolution: annually
  6. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  7. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forveAyearX Area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
couveAyearX Area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
agricAyearX Area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
pastmAyearX Area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
silviAyearX Area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
mosaiAyearX Area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
others Area in hectares of all other classes. It doesn't change across years. 

Technical info (En)

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2020_2050.zip

Metadata

  1. Scenario: Lives in Balance
  2. Data type: shapefile
  3. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  4. Source: area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year
    • Unit: ha
  5. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2020-2050
    • Resolution: annually
  6. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  7. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forveAyearX Area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
couveAyearX Area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
agricAyearX Area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
pastmAyearX Area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
silviAyearX Area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
mosaiAyearX Area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X from 2020 to 2050.
others Area in hectares of all other classes. It doesn't change across years. 

Technical info

LUCCME_NEXUS_Historical_Trend_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip

Metadata

  1. Scenario: Historical Trend
  2. Data type: shapefile
  3. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  4. Source: increment of area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year
    • Unit: ha
  5. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2021-2050
    • Resolution: annually 
  6. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  7. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forveAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.
couveAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.
agricAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X.
pastmAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X.
silviAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X.
mosaiAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X.

Technical info

LUCCME_NEXUS_Green_Transition_increment_land_and_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip.zip

Metadata

  1. Scenario: Green Transition
  2. Data type: shapefile
  3. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  4. Source: increment of area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year
    • Unit: ha
  5. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2021-2050
    • Resolution: annually
  6. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  7. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forveAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.
couveAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.
agricAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X.
pastmAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X.
silviAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X.
mosaiAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X.

Technical info

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip

Metadata

  1. Scenario: Lives in Balance
  2. Data type: shapefile
  3. Datum SIRGAS 2000 Polyconic (EPSG5880)
  4. Source: increment of area (ha) of each class in the cell simulated for each year
    • Unit: ha
  5. Temporal scale
    • Extension: 2021-2050
    • Resolution: annually
  6. Spatial scale
    • Extension: Brazil
    • Resolution: 10 km x 10 km cell
  7. Columns available
Name Description
id Cell identification
col Column identification
row Row identification
forveAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.
couveAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Non-Natural Forest Vegetation in the year X.
agricAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Agriculture in the year X.
pastmAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Planted Pasture in the year X.
silviAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Planted Forest in the year X.
mosaiAyearX Incremented area in hectares of Mosaic in the year X.

Files

LUCCME_NEXUS_ Lives_in_Balance_increment_land_cover_type_10km2_epsg5880_2021_2050.zip

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