IEEE - Scenarios to 2030 - Information & Knowledge (June 2013)

What potential innovations could the IEEE federation foster over the next two decades that would most benefit humankind? In order IEEE engaged the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) to develop a set of four alternative scenarios, i.e., stories describing
how the future may unfold in different ways. The scenarios concentrated on the future of Internet and Knowledge. 

The “aspirational futures” describes three “zones” of the future. These zones are bounded by plausibility (the objective lens) and differentiated by preferability (the subjective lens):
• A “zone of conventional expectation,” reflecting the extrapolation of known trends—the expectable future;
• A “zone of growing desperation” which presents a set of plausible challenges that may emerge—a challenging future; and
• A “zone of high aspiration” in which stakeholders pursue visionary strategies and achieve surprising success—an
aspirational future.

• Scenario 1: Smart Technologies, Missed Opportunities
(Expectable Zone)
The combination of big data and social networks creates high-quality knowledge technologies and networks around the world. However, leaders and communities fail to use them to address the grand challenges of the 21st century.

• Scenario 2: Info, Info Everywhere (and Not a Drop to Drink)
(Challenging Zone)
A small number of powerful entities create and control advanced analytics that turn information into knowledge. Most people lack access to these sophisticated tools for making sense of the ever-increasing reams of information.

• Scenario 3: An Integrated Knowledge Network
(Aspirational Zone)
Visionary leaders facilitate the creation of a highly integrated global knowledge network that is accessible to all. The network combines advanced analytics and human expertise to create high-quality knowledge, and increasingly wisdom, for alleviating global challenges.

• Scenario 4: Distributed Talent for Good
(Aspirational Zone)
Rising unemployment and shifts in societal expectations undermine traditional organizational structures, pushing most associations and many other organizations to the brink of extinction. However, a handful of these associations reinvent themselves as networks of autonomous entities united by a common purpose.