Forecasting Analysis of Palm Oil FFB Price with Holt-Winters Approach: Case Study in Riau Province

The price of oil palm Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) fluctuates and is influenced by various factors such as the price of crude palm oil (CPO), market demand, and weather conditions, forecasting FFB prices is important for industry players and farmers in making decisions. The data used is FFB price data in Riau Province in a certain period. The forecasting process was carried out using R software with the forecast package. The results showed that the Holt- Winters model was able to capture trend and seasonal patterns in FFB price data with a high level of accuracy. model evaluation was carried out using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the main metric for measuring the level of forecasting error. The MAE value obtained shows that this model can provide a fairly accurate estimation of FFB prices. It is expected that the results of this study can be a reference for farmers and stakeholders in planning business strategies and palm oil industry policies.