Development of a modelling approach for conducting spatial assessments of future wildfire danger in Scotland. Deliverable 2.4b for the Project D5-2: Climate Change Impacts on Natural Capital. The James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen. Scotland

The purpose of this report is to present the results of spatial assessments of future fire danger in the Cairngorms National Park for the 2020 -2049 period, generated using a probabilistic fire danger model trained using historical fire data for different fuels and data layers of climatic projections. The aim of this report is to present the methods and data layers used to develop and validate the fire danger model and present and discuss the generated spatial assessment of fire danger within the Park. The report also provides a discussion on limitations of this modelling approach along with potential improvements and suggestions for next steps towards developing fire risk assessment frameworks.