Data and code for "Unprecedented suppression of Panama's Pacific upwelling in 2025"

This repository contains the complete dataset and R code used to document and analyse the unprecedented failure of seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panama during 2025, representing the first such event in over 40 years of observational records.

Dataset Description

Temporal Coverage: 1985-2025 (satellite data), 1995-2025 (in situ temperature), 2014-2025 (wind data)

Spatial Coverage: Gulf of Panama, Pacific coast of Central America (approximately 7-9°N, 78-80°W)

Data Contents

Temperature Data

• Satellite sea surface temperature (SST): 40-year time series (1985-2025) from NOAA Coral Reef Watch 5km product, extracted from 8.1750°N, 79.3250°W
• In situ temperature loggers: 30-year continuous record (1995-2025) from automated loggers deployed at 6m depth near Isla Pacheca (8.660°N, 79.050°W), recorded at 15-minute intervals
• Temperature profiles: CTD cast data from March 2024 and 2025 at station GP-07 (7.970°N, 79.300°W) to 60m depth

Atmospheric Data

• Local wind measurements: Quality-controlled wind speed and direction data from Punta Culebra meteorological station (8.91072°N, 79.52892°W) covering 2014-2024 and 2025
• ERA5 reanalysis data: Regional wind speed and sea surface temperature data spanning 1940-2025, processed for Gulf of Panama region

Derived Variables

• Upwelling event identification (days below 25°C threshold)
• Wind stress calculations (meridional and zonal components)
• Cumulative upwelling metrics
• Wind relaxation event analysis
• ENSO state classifications and correlations

Code Repository

Complete R scripts (version 4.1.2) to reproduce all analyses and figures, including:

• Data processing and quality control procedures
• Statistical analyses (GAM fitting, t-tests, correlation analyses)
• Upwelling event detection algorithms
• Wind stress and relaxation calculations
• Figure generation code for all manuscript figures
• ENSO analysis workflows

Applications

This dataset enables research into:

• Tropical coastal upwelling systems and their variability
• Climate impacts on marine ecosystems
• Wind-driven oceanographic processes
• ENSO effects on regional upwelling
• Long-term environmental monitoring and trend analysis
• Fisheries and coral reef ecosystem impacts

Methodology

Data collection and analysis methods follow established oceanographic conventions for the region, with upwelling events defined as periods when mean daily temperature drops below 25°C. Wind stress calculations use standard formulations with quality-controlled meteorological data. Statistical analyses employ generalized additive models (GAM) and comparative techniques to assess the 2025 anomaly against historical baselines.

Data Quality

All datasets have undergone quality control procedures appropriate to each data type. Temperature logger data include sensor calibration and outlier detection. Wind data are filtered for quality and consistency. Satellite data represent validated operational products from NOAA.

Related Publications

This dataset supports the findings published in O'Dea et al. (2025) "Unprecedented suppression of Panama's Pacific upwelling in 2025" and provides a foundation for continued monitoring and research of this critical tropical upwelling system.

Keywords: upwelling, tropical oceanography, Gulf of Panama, climate change, marine ecology, wind stress, sea surface temperature, ENSO, time series analysis