Russia's Futures until 2040: Impact on the Futures of Ukraine and Europe

This participatory foresight study explores possible futures of the Russian Federation, a critical uncertainty for Ukrainian and global security identified in prior national research led by the Inter-factional Union of Members of Parliament “Strategic Foresight of Ukraine” (2022–2023). Drawing on insights from a wide range of Ukrainian and international stakeholders, this research presents scenarios for Russia's futures by 2040, an analysis of the strategic implications for Ukraine and Europe, and a set of policy recommendations.

This publication is the result of a collaborative project conducted from March 2024 to May 2025 by the Inter-Factional Union of Members of Parliament of Ukraine “Strategic Foresight of Ukraine” and the Foresight Sector of the Research Service of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The project was implemented in partnership with the "Interns’ League" NGO, with the financial support of the International Renaissance Foundation and in cooperation with United Nations Volunteers.

This work was made possible by the invaluable volunteer contributions of numerous individuals and teams. We extend our sincere gratitude to the volunteer Futures Intelligence Team (Ukraine), Futures Intelligence Team (International UN Volunteers), Futures Intelligence Team (Interns) for their essential work in data collection, horizon scanning, and impact assessment.

We are also deeply grateful to the many experts who shared their knowledge through workshops, interviews, surveys, scenario and report review and feedback, and strategic foresight converation sessions.

The conclusions presented in this report represent an analytical synthesis of the many diverse, and at times divergent, views shared by contributors throughout the research process. As such, the findings are those of the authors alone and do not reflect a unified position or the official views of any single expert, partner organization, or supporting institution.